The top of the cotton "cotton city" cotton industry chain is difficult to continue

[Editor's note] In 2010, the price of many agricultural products such as garlic, ginger, and potatoes had reached the peak value over the years, but this year it suffered a general decline, and many agricultural product prices fell to near the cost line. At the same time when cotton was listed on the market, Dezhou, a city known as the "cotton town," also fell into the dilemma of having to sell cotton.

Zhongguang.com comprehensively reported that Dezhou, Shandong Province is known as the “City of Cotton,” and that when it comes to the centralized listing of cotton, this time of year is the season when Texas cotton farmers and cotton companies are busy picking and buying, and this year and previous years are full of vitality. The difference is that because the issue of cotton prices is too low, this year's cotton market basically has no transactions, and cotton purchases are dead.

· Most of cotton farmers have reduced or abandoned cotton. It is understood that the price of cotton is now sold at about 3.8 yuan per catty, and when it was the highest last year, it bought more than 7 yuan per catty, and cotton was just in early September this year. When it was listed, it also sold a pound of 4.8 yuan. According to cotton farmers, the price is only 4.5 yuan per kilogram to make money. 3.8 yuan does not make money, or even lose money. So at present prices, farmers are not only reluctant to sell, but even many farmers have already switched to wheat. The reporter learned that at present, some cotton farmers in Texas have already picked up wheat from cotton and wheat, and some villages have reached 70%. Most farmers say that they will reduce or not grow cotton next year. It is expected that the area of ​​cotton in Dezhou will fall by 20%-30% next year.

In the city of Dezhou, Shandong Province, on the way to Wucheng County, there are many cotton fields on both sides of the road that have been leveled out and planted with wheat. According to relevant media reports, many cotton farmers have pulled cotton from the cotton fields and switched to wheat because they do not make money. With cotton prices falling, processing plants stopped, and farmers losing money, the cotton industry chain in Dezhou, Shandong, has been difficult to sustain.

The price of cotton fluctuates and the textile companies stop producing more cotton. The decline in cotton prices has affected cotton farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting. This news is not good news for textile companies. In accordance with production practices, textile companies generally start working all year long to maintain equipment, and cotton processing companies should start acquiring and adjusting machines in early September. However, most of the enterprises in Dezhou, Shandong Province, are not producing normally.

Tian Hongjun, manager of Xiajin County Fengrun Textile Co., Ltd., told reporters that now their companies have limited production by a quarter every day, and they are considered to be the most normal production enterprises in the enterprises near their townships and towns. The four or five families around them stopped. Tian Hongjun said that when the price of cotton is high, the price of cotton yarn is low; when the price of cotton falls, enterprises are afraid that the price of cotton will be even lower, and they still dare not collect more cotton. The high and low cotton prices make it difficult for companies to maintain normal operations.

During the interview, the reporter also learned that from March to now, 80% of the companies in Texas have stopped production and restricted production. 40% of the companies are in the state of production suspension, and 20% of the companies may go out of business. Detailed cotton spot sales difficult international cotton prices difficult to rejuvenate According to China Cotton Exchange News release on the 6th, the spot price of cotton is still slowly downgraded, the textile industry is restrained by orders, profits shrink, RMB appreciation, the European economy is weak multiple pressure , Sales difficulties, near the end of the year, the pressure of corporate funding tensions are also increasing. The purchase market for cotton continues to be deserted. Since the price of seed cotton has fallen by more than 40% year-on-year, there will be no shortage of cotton farmers who are preparing to abandon cotton for the next year.

The quoted price of imported cotton in China's main port was basically stable. Except for West Africa cotton, most other varieties dropped slightly by 0.25 cents, while Central Asia lowered 1.25 cents. From the US Cotton Export Weekly Report, after the large-scale purchases of the previous week, the Chinese textile companies' inventory was significantly slowed down. First, the cotton prices rebounded sharply. Second, the purchasing demand has been released, and the quotation and quotas before the end of the year have been Very limited. It is expected that textile companies will still import cotton at a low price in due course. However, under the backdrop of weak demand and slow economic growth, international cotton prices are unlikely to revive.

· Analysis of causes The blind misjudgment of enterprises on the market industry analysts believe that the blind misjudgment of some domestic companies on the market is one of the main reasons. Last year, the price of cotton began to sing all the way from August, and the cotton futures index of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose from 18,000 to 33,000 (simultaneous with the basic cash). Although the business risks continue to increase, but a considerable number of cotton acquisition and processing enterprises bet on the market price of cotton will continue to rise, not only did not sell the inventory of lint timely, but increased the inventory of lint, in various ways to grab resources .

However, the soaring price of lint prices eventually defeated the textile downstream. After April of this year, due to cost pressures, some textile companies began to adjust their product mix and reduced the amount of cotton used, resulting in a rapid decline in lint prices. In addition, since the second half of this year, the debt crisis in Europe and the United States has intensified, especially in September, collective diving of domestic and foreign commodities fell. Cotton is no exception.

Industry experts said that the dramatic ups and downs of the cotton market in these two years are precisely the consequences of our lack of focus on long-term risk analysis. Some experts have suggested that companies in the cotton industry chain, especially cotton enterprises as intermediate links, must use a macroscopic perspective to examine the world and ship products in time according to the law of price fluctuations. They cannot just stare at the price of cotton.

In the case of cotton farmers, some experts have appealed that farmers should be given agricultural subsidies like grain subsidies, and cotton farmers should be encouraged to set up cotton cooperatives to reduce planting costs. Otherwise, this year's price collapse will lead to a significant shrinkage in planting area in the coming year, and lay a new hidden danger for the sudden rise and fall of agricultural products. Detailed Market Information Poor Farmers Experience "After Harvest"

According to relevant media reports, the prices of agricultural products have fluctuated greatly. Experts and analysts attributed this to the incompleteness of information mechanisms. Farmers lacked macro-industry information and timely price information in arranging agricultural production. Analysts and agricultural experts have called for the establishment of a nationwide agricultural information system and timely dissemination of relevant information to farmers through SMS, television programs or fixed websites. Some experts and industry experts also believe that the current planting structure of some of the main agricultural production areas is relatively single, and in the case of fierce market conditions, the market is hit by a greater impact, it is recommended that government departments gradually guide farmers to adjust and improve the planting structure, and enhance market adaptation ability.